Every bet on a margined market gives up a small, fixed slice to the house. Any single bet can win — but across many bets, that slice compounds into a predictable drain. This simulator shows the expected path of a bankroll: how much the edge takes as your total turnover grows, and roughly how long the money lasts. It models the average, not luck; real results swing above and below it, but the direction is set by the edge.
Enter your bankroll, your average stake per bet, the house edge (margin) on the markets you bet, and how many bets you plan to place. A typical single-market football margin is around 5%; parlays and props run much higher.
Expected loss = total staked × house edge, where total staked = stake × number of bets. The same money re-bet many times is charged the edge every time — which is why how often you bet matters more than how much.
This tool models the expected value — the average outcome the maths points to. It does not predict your actual results: variance means a real bankroll can rise for a while or fall much faster, and a lucky run does not change the underlying edge. What the tool makes visible is the direction the edge sets over time, and the fact that re-betting the same money grinds it down through turnover. There is no stake size or system that removes the edge; the honest use is to see the drain clearly and decide your limits accordingly.
18+ only. Bet only on a PAGCOR-licensed sportsbook, set a deposit limit in advance, and treat any stake as the price of entertainment. Plan a ceiling with the budget & limit planner, check where you stand with the self-assessment, and call the National Problem Gambling Helpline 24/7 at (02) 8248-9568.